Thursday, 1 August 2013

Indian Rupee Slips Back To Near Record Lows

The Indian rupee commenced lower on Wednesday, July 31, 2013 extending previous day decline as dollar firmed up against other currencies in overseas markets ahead of the US Fed concluding its policy meeting and a weak opening in the domestic equity market added further pressure on the domestic currency. Besides, heavy month-end demand for the US currency amid growth concerns also weighed on the local unit. The domestic currency opened weaker by 43 paise at Rs 60.91 to a dollar, edged up to a high of 60.83 before slumping back to a low of 61.21 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 61.02, down around 54 paise or 0.89% as compared to previous close at 60.48.Rupee fell below the key psychological level of 60 to the dollar to a three-week low on Tuesday, posting its biggest fall in a month, and wiping out all the gains notched up on central bank's recent liquidity tightening measures as RBI kept interest rates on hold and failed to announce any additional steps to defend the currency.
Domestic benchmark indices slumped in early trade as most Asian stocks fell as investors remained caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. Asian shares were flat on Wednesday and the dollar held onto some slight gains as market momentum stalled ahead of the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting and release of U.S. GDP data. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was down 190.13 points or 0.98% to 19.158.21 while the CNX Nifty was down 53.80 points or 0.93% to 5,701.25.
The dollar struggled to extend modest overnight gains early in Asia on Wednesday as investors trod cautiously ahead of the outcome of the Federal Reserve policy review that could see the central bank drive home a dovish message. The euro steady above 1.32 to the dollar. The dollar index was around 81.80 levels. The dollar yen was at 98.

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Technical Comment For The Day: Copper

Copper recovered sharply and tested a one week high on the back of high liquidation of short positions. The open interest has dipped continuously in the last three sessions. The pickup in volumes to 71541 kgs, also justified that the rise in metal. MCX Copper August expiry contract closed at Rs 421.5 per kg, up 2.5%. Further rise of metal towards Rs 425 is highly likely in today's session. Earlier in the month, Copper has managed to test the resistance of Rs 425 but failed to surpass it. On LME, Copper was up by 1.6%, at $ 6920 per tonne. The next support for the contract is at $ 7000 per tonne.
Source by Commodity Insights

Tuesday, 30 July 2013

Maize Futures To Witness Stockiest Selling From Higher Levels

Selling is likely to continue in maize futures in the near term due to steady kharif sowing progress along with weak export demand of maize in international prices. The NCDEX futures settled flat in the last trading.
As per the latest release from Ministry of Agriculture, the total sowing acreage of maize as on 26th July 2013 reported at 71.10 lakh hectares against 57.15 lakh hectares in the same time last year. This is mainly due to strong sowing in Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. The fresh supplies of these states will start from mid-September.
Moreover, weakness in export demand due to low prices of maize in international market will also encourage some selling in futures market. The spot prices of Indian maize are being traded at $20-30 per tonne higher in international market.
The NCDEX September futures declined by almost Rs 2 per quintal in the last trading to close at Rs 1290 per quintal . The NCDEX futures added 11.85 % in open interest indicating fresh short position by traders. Technically, selling is likely to emerge from 1298-1302 levels while supports are likely at 1275-1280 levels in the near term.
Source by Commodity Insights

The resistance of Rs 413 and Rs 414 per kg again proved too stiff for Copper to breach on Tuesday. The metal remained in green but managed to close with minor gains of 0.09% to Rs 411.2 per kg. The prices are likely to remain trading in the same manner as they did on Tuesday. The range of Rs 414 and Rs 409 is active at the moment in Copper. Open interest in the metal was down by 7786 contracts to 25834 contracts on 30 July 2013. However the volumes were up reaching 53437 kgs in the August contract. This indicates that traders tried to settled their respective short positions before the key decisions from US.
Source by Commodity Insights

Monday, 29 July 2013

Gold Slips As Dollar Moves Up Ahead Of Fed

Gold futures are trading lower in the Asia electronic session today as the US dollar moved up from its one-month low against the Japanese yen, as the Federal Reserve prepared to start a two-day monetary-policy meeting.
The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s movement against six other major currencies, rose to 81.711, up from 81.663 late Monday in North America. The euro bought $1.3260, little changed from $1.3263, while the British pound fell to $1.5339 from $1.5349.
The ICE dollar index had lost more than 3% since hitting its most recent high on June 9. The pullback was spurred by speculation about when the Fed will begin tapering its bond purchases and by subsequent comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke about interest rates staying low for an extended period.
An ounce of gold on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange is trading down $1.3 at $ 1328.3. Yesterday, it rose $7.70, or 0.6%, to settle at $1,329.60 an ounce. The FOMC begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday, with its decision on monetary policy due Wednesday.
September silver futures are trading down 0.049 at $ 19.81 per ounce on Comex. Yesterday, it ended higher by 9 cents, or 0.5%, to $19.86 an ounce.
A packed week of updates for the market includes the first reading of second-quarter gross domestic product in the U.S., manufacturing data from major gold consumer China, and monetary-policy decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of England.
MCX new benchmark October contract may open today’s session near Rs 27850 levels with support around Rs 27740 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: Japan Industrial Output Falls 3.3 In June

Japan's industrial production took an unexpectedly sharp drop in June, falling a seasonally adjusted 3.3% from May, though manufacturers offered an upbeat outlook for the current month, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported Tuesday. A fall in production of transport equipment, including autos, led the decline, followed by electronics and machinery, the ministry said. However, a survey of manufacturers raised their forecast for July's industrial production to a rapid gain of 6.5%, up from 3.3% projected in last month's survey. In May, the survey -- produced by the ministry -- had tipped output to fall 2.4% in June.
Source  by Commodity Insights

Sunday, 28 July 2013

Economic Buzz: Japan's June Annual Retail Sales Rise 1.60%

The Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry said that retail sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.6% in June, from 0.8% in the preceding month. Analysts had expected retail sales to rise at annual rate of to 1.9% last month.Source by Commodity Insights

Crude Oil Slips On Demand Concerns

Crude oil futures slipped below $95 a barrel in the Asia electronic trades today on demand concerns from China after the official data released over the weekend showing profits at Chinese industrial firms slowed in June.
The Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, that the net income increased 6.3 percent from a year earlier to 502.4 billion yuan ($82 billion), down from a 15.5 percent pace in May. Profit from main business operations fell 2.3 percent after an 8.8 percent gain the previous month, it said.
Industrial companies’ profits in the first six months of the year rose 11.1 percent to 2.58 trillion yuan, down from a 12.3 percent gain in the January-May period, and sales rose 11.4 percent to 47.8 trillion yuan.
In Asia today, the Hang Seng Index lost 1% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index skidded 1.8%. The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.4%, on course for a fourth straight day of losses. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 1.9% to 13,855.41, dropping below the 14,000-point level.
Light sweet crude futures for delivery in September are trading down 28 cents at $ 104.42 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On the week, Nymex oil futures fell 3.24%.
In the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish data on gross domestic product and manufacturing activity to further gauge the strength of the U.S. economy. In addition, traders will be eyeing the Fed's monthly policy statement for indications on the future of the central bank's bond-buying program.
MCX August crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 6150 levels with support around Rs 6100-070 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Thursday, 25 July 2013

Gold Extends Gains In Asia

futures extended gains in the Asia electronic session today, hitting an intraday high of $ 1340.5 per ounce. The metal also got some safe haven support from the losses in the Asian equities.
In Asia, the Japanese stocks tumbled toward a third straight day of losses on the yen’s strength, while Australian and South Korean shares climbed following overnight gains on Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average skidded 2.1%, and China’s Shanghai Composite lost 0.7%, after each also declined in the previous two sessions.
Gold for December delivery is trading up $9.1 at $ 1338.6 an ounce on the COMEX division of New York Mercantile Exchange. The august delivery contract which expired yesterday ended the session up $9.30, or 0.7%, to settle at $1,328.80 an ounce. Prices for the contract had tallied a two-session loss of 1.2%.
In the currencies today, the U.S. dollar came off one-months lows against the euro and the British pound Friday, but the greenback was still in line to post a loss of more than 1% for the week. The euro on Friday traded at $1.3281, down slightly from $1.3290 on Thursday, when it reached its strongest level since June 19. The dollar had advanced to ¥99.29 from ¥99.11 just after Japan’s Finance Ministry said the core consumer price index rose 0.4% from June 2012, though it was unchanged compared with May’s levels.
Investors later Friday will receive the final reading on U.S. consumer sentiment in July, with the survey expected to show a rise to 84 from a preliminary reading of 83.9. Late next week, attention will turn to the U.S. government’s key jobs report for July, with labor-market conditions a major component of the Fed’s assessment of economic recovery.
MCX August gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 27400 levels with resistance near Rs 27470-90 levels and support near Rs 27250 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: Japan Registers Inflation For June

Japan's consumer prices managed to register mild inflation in June compared with a year earlier, data out Friday from the Finance Ministry showed. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh-food costs, rose 0.4% from June 2012, though it was unchanged compared to May's levels. Meanwhile, July's core CPI for metropolitan Tokyo -- seen as a leading indicator for the nation as a whole -- also scored a price gain, rising 0.3% on an annual basis, though it too was unchanged from the previous month. Overall national CPI including all items rose 0.2% from a year earlier, but was flat from May. The fuel, light and water charges segment led the gains, with a 5.7% annual increase nationally, the ministry said. Japan has been struggling to rid itself of on-and-off deflation that has dragged on the economy for years, with the central bank currently targeting a 2% core CPI gain by 2015.
Source by Commodity Insights